In the third quarter of 2026, Maersk posted an operating profit of USD 3.3 billion, up 155% year on year. The improvement was driven by higher container freight rates, even though volumes declined slightly. However, the gradual return of vessels to the Suez Canal could erode these high margins. Shorter routes save fuel and time, but they also free up vessel capacity and create room for freight rates to fall. [2]
About the company
A.P. Møller – Mærsk is a Danish transport and logistics group headquartered in Copenhagen, whose shares are traded on Nasdaq Copenhagen. It provides ocean container shipping, logistics services and port terminal operations, linking the sea transport of goods with warehousing and delivery to the customer. Each business has different margins and a different sensitivity to freight rate movements, which affects the stability of the group’s overall earnings.1
New guidance is close to analyst expectations
Maersk’s revenue rose 27% year on year to USD 18.1 billion. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased 75% to USD 4.71 billion, but fell short of the average analyst estimate in an LSEG poll by roughly 6.5%. The company also raised its full-year underlying EBITDA guidance from USD 10.5–12.5 billion to USD 14–14.5 billion. Analysts, however, were already expecting USD 14.02 billion. [3] The new guidance therefore largely confirmed their expectations, although it was a significant improvement on management’s previous estimate. On 5 November, the day the results were published, the B shares closed at DKK 20,870, a daily decline of 5.99%.*2
Higher rates outweighed rising costs
The biggest improvement came from ocean shipping. The average realised freight rate rose 46% to USD 3,287 per forty-foot equivalent unit, while volumes fell 0.8%. Unit costs at a fixed fuel price rose 4.8%. The Ocean division’s operating margin increased from 6.2% to 20.6%, mainly thanks to higher rates. Operating profit was also supported by extending the estimated useful life of vessels from 20 to 25 years, which reduced quarterly depreciation by USD 176 million. This accounting change did not in itself increase cash generation. The results therefore do not yet prove that Maersk can achieve similar margins when shipping becomes cheaper. To sustain them, it would need to reduce its cost per container accordingly. [4]4
Suez could make both operations and shipping cheaper [5]
Pressure on rates could intensify as shorter routes are gradually restored. On 2 November, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced that their joint ME1 service between India and Europe would return to the Suez Canal instead of sailing around Africa. The same volume of cargo can thus be carried in less time and with less vessel capacity. The freed-up ships could increase shipping supply and intensify price competition. The decline in revenue caused by lower rates could then outweigh the savings in fuel costs. Further route changes, however, remain dependent on the security situation in the Red Sea. [6] On 5 November, the Drewry WCI freight rate index fell 1% week on week to USD 4,389 per 40-foot container, but was still 124% higher than a year earlier. For now, this move shows only a slight easing from a high level and does not in itself confirm a lasting turn in the market.5
Ocean shipping still drives profit growth
Logistics services and terminals provide Maersk with additional sources of income, but their contribution to operating profit remains considerably smaller. In the third quarter, they generated a combined USD 752 million, while the ocean division achieved approximately USD 2.6 billion. Moreover, according to a calculation based on the published results, Ocean accounted for approximately 94% of the group’s year-on-year increase in EBITDA. Most of the improvement therefore continues to come from ocean shipping. The development of other services is broadening Maersk’s business, but has not yet fundamentally reduced the dependence of its profit growth on freight rates. When valuing the shares, the decisive question therefore remains how much of the current ocean margins the company can retain once capacity constraints ease. [7]6
Cash must also cover fleet renewal
Strong earnings translated into free cash flow of USD 2.389 billion for the third quarter. At the end of September, Maersk had a net cash position of USD 3.213 billion, even after taking lease liabilities into account. This reserve gives it room to fund operations during a weaker period. However, the company plans capital expenditure of USD 10–11 billion over the two-year period 2026–2027, so it will need part of the cash generated to renew and develop its assets. The dividend policy provides for a payout of 30–50% of underlying net profit, with the actual dividend also depending on the outlook and investment needs. For shareholders, what matters is therefore how much cash will remain after investment, even in years with weaker freight rates. [8]7
Conclusion
Maersk is currently earning significantly from the limited availability of shipping capacity. A return to the Suez route could weaken this advantage, even if world trade continues to grow. When valuing the shares, it therefore makes more sense to start from profitability at lower freight rates than to assume that the current margin will last. A more lasting improvement in earnings would be confirmed by falling unit costs and the ability to fund both investment and dividends at weaker freight prices. As long as profit growth comes mainly from higher rates while costs per container are rising, an exceptionally strong quarter does not provide a reliable basis for estimating long-term performance. [9]
This text constitutes marketing communication. It is not any form of investment advice or investment research, nor an offer of any transaction in a financial instrument. The content does not take into account readers’ individual circumstances, experience or financial situation. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future results.
* Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
[1] – [9] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or on the current economic environment, which may change. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.
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- Maersk – company profile and share information. Nasdaq Copenhagen.
- Maersk – Q3 2026 results. Reuters – analyst expectations, 5 Nov 2026. Tradzy – B share closing price, 5 Nov 2026.
- Yahoo Finance – MAERSK-B.CO, daily closing prices from 8 Nov 2021 to 6 Nov 2026; chart prepared by the author.
- Maersk – Interim Report Q3 2026, Ocean division and Note 5 on the change in depreciation estimates.
- Maersk – ME1 service returns to the Suez route, 2 Nov 2026. Drewry – World Container Index, 5 Nov 2026.
- Maersk – Q3 2026 results; own calculation of Ocean’s share of the year-on-year increase in EBITDA: (3,699 − 1,787) / (4,710 − 2,686) = 94.47%.
- Maersk – Q3 2026 financial report, cash and investment outlook. Capital allocation and dividend policy.
- OZIOS – current risk warning on the homepage; share of losing accounts 71.07%, verified 9 Nov 2026.
